Understand the true impact of jackpot structures on your long-term EV as a grinder on GGPoker. If you'd rather win by skill than by a clerical error in the deck, let's get to work together!
Based on 42.1 million hands from GGPoker NL100+. We found 624 BBJ triggers , a frequency of 1 in 67,500 hands.
Sample: 8.2M regular hands + 33.9M Rush & Cash. Rush plays faster (new table each hand) but BBJ rules are identical , combining both ensures robust data.
See how the -2.08bb/100 jackpot fee impacts your bankroll over thousands of trials. At a pool size of roughly $2,017,000, the mathematical frequency of hitting the BBJ should offset the fee and brings your theoretical EV back to zero.
Adjust the pool size and your stakes to see how they affect your expected value. These calculations are based on historical data and should be used as indicative estimates only—actual results may vary due to the inherent randomness of poker and changing jackpot conditions.
| Total Pool | Your Stake Pool | Jackpot Win | Net BB/100 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.60M | $41K | $4K | -0.430 | -EV |
| $1.80M | $46K | $5K | -0.224 | -EV |
| $2.02M | $52K | $5K | +0.000 | +EV |
| $2.20M | $57K | $6K | +0.189 | +EV |
| $2.40M | $62K | $6K | +0.396 | +EV |
| $2.60M | $67K | $7K | +0.602 | +EV |
To WIN the main jackpot (lose with AAATT or better), you need to play ~402,288 hands. At 500 hands/hour, that's 805 hours , or about 101 days of 8-hour sessions.
To win the main jackpot, you need 402,288 hands. A recreational player grinding 5 hours/week at 80 hands/hour would need ~19 years of play to expect one jackpot win. That's longer than most poker careers.
You'll get a table share once every ~101,588 hands , about 4x more often than winning the main prize. It's small ($415 at your stake), but it's something!
Bottom Line: At current pool levels, you're paying 2.08 bb/100 in fees. Your expected return is +0.000 bb/100. The pool is high enough to make BBJ tables mathematically +EV!
Data based on 42.1M verified hands from GGPoker (NL100+) • 624 BBJ triggers analyzed
Built with 🌮 by Freenachos