Variance Calculator

Understand your variance with multi-stake weighting and Monte Carlo simulation. Ready for structured guidance? Explore the Mentorship Program.

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Poker EV Simulator

Understand your variance with multi-stake weighting

Basic Parameters

Note: Set win rate and std dev in the Advanced panel per stake.
Avg BB
$0.25
Avg WR
4.0
Avg SD
90
🌮

Nacho Bankroll Analysis

Minimum bankroll requirements based on Risk of Ruin • Primary stake: 25NL

😤
Aggressive Nacho
High-risk shot-taker • 10.0% RoR
$583
2,332 BB
Recommended
🙂
Basic Nacho
Industry standard • 5.0% RoR
$759
3,034 BB
🤠
Pro Nacho
Serious grinder • 1.0% RoR
$1,166
4,663 BB
😰
Nit Nacho
Bulletproof bankroll • 0.1% RoR
$1,749
6,995 BB

Formula: B = (σ² / 2WR) × ln(1/RoR) where σ = std dev per hand, WR = win rate per hand

How to Use & Read Results

Input Parameters

  • Win Rate: Your expected BB/100
  • Std Dev: Variance (typically 70-120)
  • Hands: Total hands to simulate
  • Samples: Number of runs
  • Advanced: Per-stake custom settings

Reading the Chart

  • Gray dashed: Theoretical EV line
  • Green lines: 95% confidence bounds
  • Faint lines: Individual sample runs
  • Best/Worst: Green/red highlights
  • Hover: Highlight any line

Key Insights

  • Wide spread: High variance expected
  • Tight spread: More consistent results
  • Below EV: Normal short-term
  • 95% CI: Most runs fall within
  • Long-term: Converges to true EV

Pro Tip: Run multiple simulations with different sample sizes to truly understand your variance. Even winning players can experience significant downswings , this tool helps you prepare mentally and financially.